What is the probability of this happening ever again?

Ice_And_Fire · 11 months

Probability is zero.

That bird is dead.

Randy Johnson is retired.

Besus · 11 months

Is that a fowl?

MIDItheKID · 11 months

Credit:

Well, this is basically a mean free path question.

Take a look at the "Refinement of Mean Free Path" equation on this page: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/kinetic/menfre.html

The only difference is that for the volume of targets swept, we will use the average velocity of a bird (We'll assume that birds and baseballs have roughly the same cross section). This means that the final equation will look like this:

v_fastball / (root(2) * pi * radius_of_baseball² * v_bird * bird_number_density)

If we plug in the numbers: v_fastball ~ 40 m/s v_bird ~ 10 m/s radius_of_baseball ~ 5 cm bird_number_density ~ 10 birds in a 100m by 100m by 100m volume (10e6 m³⁾ = 10e-5 birds per m³ (This is a complete estimation, based on the number of birds I've seen flying around a baseball stadium).

This gives us a MFP of about 3.6e7 meters (or 36,000 kilometers).

Now, in each game, about 100 pitches are thrown by each team. Each pitch travels 60 feet, or 18 meters. So it would take 3.6e7 / 18 = 2 million pitches to hit one bird. In MLB, there have been around 25 teams, each of which has played around 150 games per year since baseball started being played professional, 100 years ago. That means there have been a total 150 * 100 * 100 = 1.5 million pitches thrown since baseball began.

Therefore, a bird getting hit by a baseball is totally plausible.

Keep in mind that these are all estimations, and for some things (such as bird density), I might be up to an order of magnitude off. But even if I'm off by a factor of 100, there's still a 1% chance a bird would have been hit by a pitch in the past 100 years. The number of opportunities increases if we include minor league games, amateur leagues, and games played in other countries.

I hope this answers your question... :)

agentwilsonx · 11 months

Pretty high, it's a looping gif.

drajgreen · 11 months

never tell me the odds

OneFootInTheDave · 11 months

Similar thing happened in a game of cricket with a pigeon. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZimSVYWmVac

PeeingInTheDark · 11 months

chiefsparten · 11 months

Dale: What happens if my tee shot lands on a bird's back and he carries it out of bounds but then is attacked by a larger bird who grabs the ball and drops it in the hole? Is that still a hole in one? 'Cause that's how I'm gonna play it.

Hank: Dang it Dale, it already happened once. What are the odds of it happening again.

Neonimous · 11 months

I remember coming home from school and watching this over and over again on Sportscenter the day this happened.

What was the probability of this happening in the first place?

HereIsTheVideo · 11 months

Here is the video

hkdharmon · 11 months

I can only find two cases of this happening; Randy Johnson and Dave Winfield. MLB started in 1869, so 2/142 = about 1.4% chance each year.

Xaguta · 11 months

IT NEVER STOPS HAPPENING!

MuchJokes · 11 months

Depends on how many birds I can get on short notice.

slyclone · 11 months

This happens about 2 times a year in amateur and professional Tennis, so 100% assuming baseball will go on forever

sockeplast · 11 months

Does this count?

could_be_anyone · 11 months

My bet is the probability is really high that this gif/video will be reposted again, many times.

CW3MH6 · 11 months

Playing NERF baseball in the backyard, a friend of mine hit the ball so hard he took out a bird mid-flight. Woulda' been a homerun (over the backyard fence) otherwise.

I felt bad for the bird, but it was still awesome.

Mormon_Jesus · 11 months

1 in 18 billion

bostaurus · 11 months

What was the call on the field? Was it ruled a ball, or did the big unit get a do over?

[deleted] · 11 months

The fact that it has happened since, pretty good. Unless you are playing the asshole literalist that over analyses the situation out of context. In that case Zero.

Phayded · 11 months

I was playing golf once and one of the guys I was with did this. Hit a bird mid flight about 25 feet in front of him, split the bird in 2 pieces. Totally screwed his shot too.

iprefersector10 · 11 months

the odds don't change just because it has happened once already

MrDrexel22 · 11 months

This happen twice

mansel · 11 months

I would kill for an AMA from Randy Johnson about that

MIDItheKID · 11 months

Also This

3gv · 11 months

Quite low, I'm afraid. There are just too few wizards left.

f0rcedinducti0n · 11 months

Pretty good if you release 1000 birds as some one throws a pitch...

Cbracher · 11 months

I always thought it was wild that this happened to such a good pitcher and not a no namer. With the amount of pitchers who have ever played what are the chances that it happened to a pitcher like Randy Johnson?

Punkndrublic · 11 months

The fucking puff of feathers as the ball hits is just so god damn funny to me. It's like a cartoon.

ithinkyoumissedit · 11 months

3720 to 1

luciddr34m3r · 11 months

Uh, well it looks like it keeps happening over and over and over...

hal9005 · 11 months

50/50 It either does or it doesn't. 2 possible outcomes = 1/2.

1jq512 · 11 months

Ok lets break this down a bit. That throw was pretty off for randy johnson. The odds of that kind of wild pitch hitting that bird dead on that exact moment is just about zero. I think it was that birds destiny to die that day

bitchpotatobunny · 11 months

Since it's never happened since, I would say not good.

thetomk · 11 months

BOOM! HEADSHOT

bdsmchs · 11 months

NoNeedForAName · 11 months

ESPN's Sports Science did the math once, but that show is often far less scientific than even Mythbusters, so I won't waste your time with their results.

dptoferrors · 11 months

Well, since the gif loops, I'd say about 100%.

Pornstar_Blowjob · 11 months

Probability is 1:DOABARRELROLL

mthnrd17 · 11 months

Equal to the probability of it happening the first time.

Heelincal · 11 months

I remember watching this live... I thought he had broken the sound barrier with the pitch for a second.

Everseer · 11 months

What is the probability that someone will repost this every week?

overduebook · 11 months

Randy Johnson grew up in my town and went to my high school but I didn't find out about this story until I was about 17. My friend told it to me while we were driving around on a narrow road. Literally ten minutes later we ran over a pigeon which exploded into a ball of feathers. Folks from my town just don't do well around pigeons, I guess.

Magnora · 11 months

What's amazing is the catcher was still tracking his mitt to catch it after it hit the bird. And it's cool too after that how he leans back away from the feather explosion because it was so unexpected. Only later does he look to see the ball. Body movement and it's relationship with what's happening in the brain is so cool.

Oafah · 11 months

I remember this well.

That bird just exploded. Fun was had by all.

jhkohane · 11 months

one dealion

k_of_ni · 11 months

Answer is surely 42.

leafsfan9917 · 11 months

no idea... but my dad was in the crowd when a bluejay threw him a ball and killed a seagull than basically got released after said he couldnt possibly have hit it if he was actually trying... unfortunately the ball got ran over by a lawnmower...

mikes210 · 11 months

now that's a FOWL ball...

elhefe7 · 11 months

Surprisingly, this has happened before, albeit in a different fashion.

Paulpaps · 11 months

I dunno but it's still more probable than the existence of God

thewerd101 · 11 months

I failed stats

omgaragesale · 11 months

I am upset that someone better at math than me hasn't actually calculated this yet. here are some numbers to get everyone started: average number of pitches in a game, cumulative number of major league games played.

even though this happened in a spring training game in 2001, I feel like we could get a pretty close number, no?

[deleted] · 11 months

The probability of you submitting to the correct subreddit? That is entirely up to you my friend.

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